If you’re old enough to have seen the original Back to the Future movie in an actual movie theater, then you may remember a time when coffee was nothing special.
It was what you drank in the morning to wake up and again mid-afternoon to keep working. If you were lucky, the pot that sat simmering in the office breakroom for hours hadn’t been boiled down to sludge by the time you got there.
“Normal” people didn’t grind their own beans and nobody knew what a latte was. Your options were more or less “What size?” and “Do you want cream and sugar?” It was handed over in a styrofoam cup and you went on your way (there was no designated “third place” between home and office).
Today, of course, and while coffee still functions as a useful stimulant, for many people (myself among them), that’s largely beside the point. The menu choices at your local coffee spot are nearly limitless and “getting coffee” is as much about hanging out, meeting people, and doing work as it is about the drink itself.
Frankly, I saw none of this coming. If you had sidled up to me in 1985 and asked me to weigh in on the future likelihood of today’s coffee scene, I would have predicted “not gonna happen.”
Maybe there were signs it was coming – the original Starbucks opened in 1971 – but I was unaware. Back then, I probably could have even made a good argument for why the plain old cup of coffee and its unremarkable presentation were here to stay.
Needless to say, I would have been way wrong.
Predicting future developments can be hard. It’s especially difficult – and easy to deny – when the future development in question threatens your livelihood (cue scary music).
Nobody Knows What’s Coming
I’ve been in the email newsletter business since 2000. Back then, the most common objection I heard from prospective clients was that not enough of their clients even had email to make it worthwhile. That changed pretty fast.
By the mid-2000s, blogs came on the scene. People predicted “the end of email.”
Soon after that, texting became popular. People predicted “the end of email.”
A little while later, social media exploded. People predicted the end of civilization and … “the end of email.”
I’ve been fortunate in that it has yet to happen and email remains fundamental in modern life (99% of email users check their email every day).
But I’ve spent the past 20+ years paying close attention. Because if email dies, I’m out of business.
One thing I have not done is spend time arguing for why it will never happen. I hope it doesn’t happen and so far it hasn’t. But if it does, I don’t want to be surprised.
Deny AI’s Impact at Your Peril
These days, there’s a lot of talk about which jobs will be replaced and when, by AI.
Budget analysts, graphic designers, software engineers, and people like me who mostly write for a living are always near the top of the list. You don’t have to look very far for people in these fields explaining why this won’t happen for a long, long time (if ever).
My fellow writers in particular (we like to communicate) explain that AI has no sense of humor, no human touch, and no original thoughts. How could it possibly do what we do?
My answer is simple: I have no idea.
And if it never does, great. But as many people have observed, AI will never be dumber or less capable than it is today – it keeps getting better.
So if you are interested in continuing to earn a good living, I have a few questions I think are worth considering, just to be on the safe side…
#1. If AI is going to destroy some or all of my business, in what way(s) might it happen?
#2. How would I respond if it did?
#3. What can I do right now – before it happens – to lessen the impact?
Here’s the Bottom Line
Our clients hire us to do work they either can’t do or don’t want to do (or both).
But as much as they may like us, if a better, easier, cheaper, or more convenient alternative comes along, that’s what they’ll choose. Wouldn’t you?
So all I’m suggesting is that we spend less time building the case for why the bad thing won’t happen and instead, think about what we will do if it does.
And don’t worry. Just as buying home insurance doesn’t cause house fires, you are not making AI’s elimination of your work more likely by taking a clear-eyed look at what it might do. If it’s coming, we may as well be ready.
Enjoy your latte.
Discussion Questions:
- What is your hot drink of choice?
- Have you ever sidled up to someone? Explain.
- How might AI impact your business?
Share your answers below…
1. Tea
2. No
3. I am embracing AI and using it to enhance my business. And yes, it does have a sense of humour? Try it!
I find it’s surprisingy good at explaining why a joke is funny (even a long-format one), but in terms of creating humor, it seems to be mostly of the “chicken crossed the road” variety. Have you found otherwise?
1. Iced coffee only year-round. This is Boston 🙂
2. When I sidle, I always try to remove the tictacs from my pocket
3. I imagine AI may eliminate or reduce the need for proofreading, but I still don’t believe it will entirely replace the need for human interaction. Thankfully, I’m closer to the end of my working life!
Yes, those tic tacs are a dead giveaway. I’m sure that’s why hunting animals rarely have them on hand.
1. Coffee
2. Introverts don’t sidle
3. When potential clients say “can’t I just use AI to write for me for free?”, it already has. I don’t compete with AI, it’s a tool in my toolbox, used with care. And it has forced me to level up, both in my work, and in the clients I work with.
I agree it’s a useful tool. Are you concerned, though, that it gets good enough and easy enough to use that instead of asking us to write X, clients simply ask the same thing of AI directly?
Coffee
Of course
Not much. As you’ve pointed out, AI can’t take the place of client stories
You sound like an experienced sidler, which I respect very much.
1. Tea – but not just any tea. The first sip of the first cup of the strongest Darjeeling breakfst tea, imbibed at 5,45 a.m. (it’s OK – you wouldn’t understand. Waking up at that hour is an old age thing.)
2. No, but I’ve been a sidlee. The sidler picked my pocket outside the Greyhound station at Roanoke, Virginia.
3. It already is doing. I’m a copywriter. AI has, so far, made me better at what I do. My research is so much more structured and thorough than it used to be. I may be mistaken but I’ve a feeling AI is also putting the less diligent copywriters out of business.
Steve! I have the same qustion for you as I did for Patti above. At what point does the help that AI provides to us as writers eliminate the need for us in the mix at all?
On a related point, does the entire concept of “Content Marketing” – which I have based my career on (i.e., share useful information regularly to develop a following and positon oneself as a helpful expert) – vanish when people no longer need “expert content” sent to them? If AI can create the content for end users that our clients ask us to provide to them for sharing, why would anyone read it in the first place?
Michael, You got me thinking of that other famous American newsletter writer, Ralph Waldo Emerson. AI is maybe another example of his oft quoted, “build a better mousetrap and the world will beat a path to your door.” But here’s the thing…..
The typical mousetrap you buy today was patented in 1899 by an American, John Mast. Since 1899 there have been more than 5000 patent applications for “better” mousetraps, but none has yet surpassed the spring-fired trap IN THE MARKET.
None of them appeal to the public’s sense of mercy and values in a quick and “painless” kill.
Nobody has yet to “build a better mousetrap” because it’s the customers/ the market/ the audience that determine what is acceptable quality and value.
Not to keep banging on about this… but the answers to a perceived AI threat lie in truly understanding the difference between “What business am I in?” (ala Ted Levitt) versus “what do I do?” It’s a subtle though very powerful distinction.
I mean, Starbucks.. what business are they in? The third place… a feeling of warmth, connection, a sense of belonging … what do they do? sell coffee.
Hello Mark! Greetings from Up Over (or whatever is the opposite of Down Under).
I think that’s an excellent point you make. After all, why do I happily pay $3 for 5 cents worth of coffee at Starbucks? Maybe there’s 50 cents of convenience value in there in addition, but the bulk of the difference is clearly about more than coffee.
For myself and my fellow writers, the “coffee” is “1000 words on topic X.” The challenge is wrapping that inside other things of value that AI hopefully can’t touch, it’s not really about providing better words.
Thanks Michael, BTW I notice that Starbuck’s CEO has left the building… and Chipotle’s Brian Niccol is taking his place.
Yes, I saw that too. I hope my saying out loud that they were selling five cents worth of coffee for $3 was not the cause….
1. Hot chocolate, non dairy
2. I try to avoid sidling or sidlers
3. I’m a VA. It may replace some of my tasks, specifically content writing and creation, idea generating, research and creating guidelines. However, I chose to embrace it, learn how to use it as a tool in my business.
Thanks for asking. 🙂
My wife is a hot chocolae drinker as well!
Hi Michael – wise words in terms of trying to anticipate emerging change in the work and workplace . I’m exploring AI functionality in my biz – kind of fun experimenting to see what it can and can’t accomplish. Definitely has potential to save effort and time on the more routine and mundane aspects of my work!!
I agree on the mundane. I like it for its summary capabilities in particular on things that are really long.
So what would you suggest we do? I appreciate the article, but I definitely am like “umm…. So basically just pay attention to the threat.” I’m curious what you would actually do and how you would answer the questions you posed?
Everybody is going to be different, depending on what services you actually offer to people. In my case, and through pure luck, I write newsletters that are #1. based on interviewing my clients (I don’t do research) and #2 heavily dependent on their personal experiences. As it turns out, those are two things AI can’t do (yet, maybe never).
You might think of AI in the way you would a potential competitor: What could “they” do that would put me out of business? Just like Amazon is killing many businesses, AI is going to do the same. Or, to take it even one step further, “If I were AI, how would I destroy Dan’s business?”
Scary to think about, but not as scary as it actually happening!
P.S. I think you just gave me a good start on a future newsletter. Thank you!
AI might replace email newsletters because, let’s be honest, nobody actually reads them—we just let them pile up like digital junk mail until guilt forces us to mass-delete them. Instead of carefully crafted subject lines that still get ignored, AI could deliver personalized updates straight into our brains (or at least our notifications) in the form of concise, perfectly timed messages. No more “Hey [First Name], we noticed you haven’t opened our last 17 emails!”—just eerily accurate AI-generated summaries of what we actually care about, like when our favorite pizza place has a discount or when our boss is looking for us. It’s the future: less inbox clutter, more relevant spam!.
[AI generated response for a one paragraph humorous response about how and why AI might replace email newsletters.] [AI telling how AI will takeover—— feels like HAL for 2001 Space Odyssey.]
Funny!